Sunday, January 19, 2014

Calculation

Calculation of the Percentage of Heterosexual Copulations that Produce Children

Consider, throughout a heterosexual's life, how many times they've had sex and how many kids they actually have, then tell me how much their sex is about procreation. All numbers used below are cited in order below the calculation.

78.7-17.1 = 61.6          years of sexual activity.
61.6 * 83 = 5112.8      acts of coitus in a lifetime.
5112./ 2 = 2556.4        copulations per progeny generated.
100/ 2556.4 = 0.039% of heterosexual copulations result in childbirth.

Conclusion: Less than 0.04% of copulations result in a child (I.E. less than 1 in 2500 heterosexual copulations result in a child).



CDC, Murphy et al. 08/05/13, National Vital Statistics Reports, 61(4), Deaths: Final Data for 2010:
"Life expectancy at birth rose 0.2 year, from 78.5 years in 2009 to a record high of 78.7 in 2010."
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lifexpec.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr61/nvsr61_04.pdf

CDC, 2006-2010, NCHS:
"Mean age at first intercourse after menarche for women aged 15-44 (2006-2010) = 17.1 years".
"Mean age at first intercourse for men aged 15-44 (2006-2010) = 17.1 years"
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nsfg/key_statistics/s.htm#sexualactivity

R.A. Hatcher, et al. Contraceptive Technology, 17th revised edition (New York: Irvington Publishers, Inc. 1998), p. 329:
"the average coital frequency of 83 acts per year".
http://www.sexedlibrary.org/index.cfm?pageId=788

CDC, 03/12/1999, MMWR, 48(47), 1073-1080:
"Since 1972, the average family size has levelled off at approximately two children".
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4847a1.htm